Where Do New East Bay Residents Come From? A Five-Year Migration Breakdown

The East Bay has always been one of the most dynamic parts of the San Francisco Bay Area. With its mix of cultural diversity, strong job access, and a more attainable housing market than San Francisco or Silicon Valley, the region continues to attract thousands of new residents every year.

But where exactly are these people coming from? And how have the last five years reshaped that flow?

At Ask Ponytail, we monitor these trends closely because they directly affect housing demand, pricing pressure, and neighborhood development. Here is a clear, data-driven look at who is moving into the East Bay today.

The Majority of New Residents Still Come from Within the Bay Area

Despite headlines about Californians leaving the state, the East Bay continues to attract a significant number of people from inside the Bay Area, especially from its highest-cost regions.

1. San Francisco

Over the last five years, San Francisco has been the top source of new East Bay residents. High rents, limited space, and lifestyle shifts have pushed thousands of San Francisco locals eastward.

For example:
• In just one fiscal year (2021–2022), nearly 10,000 San Francisco residents moved into Alameda and Contra Costa counties.
• During the height of the pandemic, more than 8,700 people relocated from San Francisco to Alameda County in a single year.

This migration pattern is longstanding. Even before the pandemic, San Francisco was losing residents to the East Bay every year, especially families seeking more space.

2. Santa Clara County (Silicon Valley)

The second-largest source is Santa Clara County, home to San Jose and the Silicon Valley tech hubs.
• More than 15,000 residents moved from Santa Clara to the East Bay in 2021–22 alone.

This reflects a growing trend: professionals who work in tech but want larger homes, quieter communities, or more competitive pricing.

3. San Mateo County

Another consistent contributor is San Mateo County, where housing costs also remain extremely high.
• Roughly 7,300 people moved from San Mateo to the East Bay in 2021–22.

These three counties together represent the core of migration into the East Bay. They are also the counties with some of the highest real estate prices in the entire state, which makes the East Bay an appealing alternative.

California Is Still the Main Pipeline of New Arrivals

While the East Bay receives residents from across the country, California remains the dominant source, even outside the Bay Area.

Los Angeles County

Los Angeles sends more newcomers than any other non-Bay Area county.
• About 3,600 LA residents relocated to the East Bay in 2021–22.

Reasons range from career opportunities in Bay Area industries to lifestyle preferences and family ties.

Central Valley and Northern California

Nearby regions also contribute to East Bay growth:
• San Joaquin County (Stockton area) sent nearly 3,700 residents to the East Bay
• Solano County added about 2,900
• Sacramento County contributed roughly 2,500

These flows demonstrate how interconnected California’s housing markets have become. Some families move closer to job centers; others move outward for affordability.

What About People from Other States?

Contrary to popular perception, interstate migration plays a much smaller role in East Bay population growth.

The only out-of-state region that consistently appears in the top 10 sources is King County, Washington (Seattle area).
• Around 1,100 Seattle-area residents moved to the East Bay in 2021–22.

While people do arrive from Texas, New York, Florida, and other states, none of these locations come close to the scale of California-based migration into the East Bay.

However, it is true that more Californians have been leaving the state than arriving from other states. That broader trend affects statewide population changes but does not change the fact that, for the East Bay specifically, most newcomers still come from within California.

Why People Are Moving to the East Bay

The reasons behind these movements reflect the shifting needs and lifestyles of Bay Area residents:

More Space for the Price

For decades, the East Bay has offered larger homes, bigger lots, and more suburban neighborhoods compared to San Francisco and the Peninsula. This continues to be one of the main motivations for families and first-time buyers.

Housing Affordability

While still expensive by national standards, many East Bay cities—such as Oakland, Richmond, Hayward, Concord, and Walnut Creek—offer more options and better value.

Hybrid and Remote Work

The pandemic changed the calculus for thousands of workers.
• When commutes became less frequent, living farther from the office became realistic.
• This shift drove temporary population losses in the Bay Area but also contributed to internal migration from dense urban centers to more residential areas.

Community and Lifestyle

The East Bay’s cultural diversity, food scene, outdoor access, and neighborhoods appeal to newcomers who want a balance of urban life and suburban comfort.

What These Trends Mean for Buyers and Sellers

For Buyers

Understanding where people are moving from helps reveal future competition and demand.
• Expect continued interest from San Francisco and Silicon Valley residents.
• Entry-level buyers may face increasing competition in walkable, transit-friendly cities such as Oakland, Alameda, and El Cerrito.

For Sellers

These migration trends create strong buyer pools:
• Young professionals priced out of San Francisco
• Tech workers relocating from Santa Clara and San Mateo
• Families moving into larger homes from both within and outside California

Well-priced and well-presented homes in the East Bay remain highly attractive to these groups.

Final Thoughts

Despite recent population declines in parts of the Bay Area, the East Bay continues to draw new residents—primarily from San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Los Angeles, and nearby California regions. The numbers show a clear pattern: the East Bay offers the space, relative affordability, and lifestyle that many people across the Bay Area are now prioritizing.

If you're considering buying or selling in the East Bay, Ask Ponytail is here to help you understand these trends and make smart, informed real-estate decisions.

Sources for Further Reading

Government & Official Data

U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) – County-to-County Migration Data
https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data

U.S. Census Bureau – American Community Survey (ACS)
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/
California Department of Finance – Population Reports
https://dof.ca.gov/forecasting/demographics/

Bay Area–Focused Migration Analysis

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) – Bay Area Migration Studies

https://www.ppic.org

Bay Area Council Economic Institute – Regional Migration Reports

https://www.bayareaeconomy.orgLocal News Outlets (Migration Trends & Housing Data)

San Francisco Chronicle – Bay Area Population and Migration Coverage

https://www.sfchronicle.com

East Bay Times – Housing, Demographics, and Regional Movements

https://www.eastbaytimes.com

ABC7 News (KGO) – Bay Area Moving Trends & Pandemic Shifts

https://abc7news.comAdditional Analysis & Housing Market Insights

Redfin Data Center – Migration, Housing Demand, and Pricing Trends

https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/

Zillow Research – Regional Housing Reports
https://www.zillow.com/research/